November 4, 2016

Clinton: The State of the Race

By Glenn
Topics:
Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton

The internet is buzzing with the US presidential race this afternoon. Huffpost Pollster did a nice comparison with the 2012 Obama-Romney race. I merged the two images to better illustrate the dynamics. I added the dark red and blue lines to the image to the Clinton-Trump graphic. It’s not perfect, but it makes the point well.

Yet Clinton is in a better place than Barack Obama was at this point in 2012. In the HuffPost Pollster chart, Obama widened his lead to just 1.5 percentage points over Mitt Romney nationally ― but that was good enough for Simon Jackman’s HuffPost model and Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight model to give Obama a 91 percent chance of winning. Obama’s odds in the states were good enough that he was predicted to get 332 electoral votes (which is what he got).

clinton_trump_v_obama_romney

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